This study was conducted to explore performance estimation and calibration, the accuracy of performance estimates compared to actual performance, for judgments made using procedural-oriented stimuli (throwing a dart at a target) rather than the more typically studied declarative-oriented stimuli (e.g., answering test or knowledge questions). The influence of gender and the difficulty of the action (making throws farther from the target) were examined. Main effects indicate males are more confident, but not better calibrated, than females. The main effect for difficulty of the task was significant for distance estimates, but task difficulty seemed to have no influence on calibration. Participants were poorly calibrated at all three throwing positions. Finally, correlational evidence showed little relationship between estimates and the actual distance the dart landed from the target. However, the estimates were all highly correlated with each other and a high degree of internal consistency was found in the distance estimates. These results suggest the presence of a general schema of what individuals believe their performance should be in a situation that seems to be little influenced by their actual performance. Anderson (1986) notes the distinction between procedural and declarative knowledge commonly used in the learning literature. Declarative knowledge is knowing factual information; for example, knowing that the capital of Iowa is Des Moines. Procedural knowledge is knowing how to perform some activity; for example, knowing how to drive a car. In this study, we will examine a construct known as confidence calibration for procedural knowledge. Confidence calibration for procedural knowledge is determined by comparing an individual's estimates of performance on some task with actual performance. The more similar estimated and actual performance is, the higher the confidence calibration of the individual. Most studies that have examined confidence calibration have used judgments of knowing facts and general information (Hart, 1965, 1966; Lichtenstein & Fischhoff, 1977; Lundeberg, Fox, Brown & Elbedour, 2000; McDonald-Miszczak, Hertzog & Hultsch, 1995; Nelson, Gerler & Narens, 1984; Puncochar & Fox, 2004; Schacter, 1986) or laboratory learned associative relations (Hart, 1967; Leonesio & Nelson, 1990), or face recognition (Weber & Brewer, 2003, 2004). In other words, these tests assessed declarative oriented performance--what do you know about what you know? The purpose of this study is to explore confidence estimates and calibration for performance on a procedurally oriented task--what do you know about what you can do?
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